Early-round risks could lead to late-season regrets
By Matt Pitzer, USA TODAY
Ever had one of those early-round draft picks you would like to have back after the first few weeks? You know, the expected star who immediately turns into a painfully obvious dud?
He sits there sucking up space on your roster. You can't get anything worthwhile in a trade, and you can't bear to bench him — yet he does nothing to help you. Ever.
They are fantasy killers: Guys who deserve to be drafted early but implode and take your team down with them.
I remember one of my early blowups when I took then-Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Rob Moore early in 1998 after he led the league the prior season with 1,584 yards — stats that blew away anything he did in his first seven seasons.
Sure enough, he was a giant weight around my team all season. That operation went nowhere, but I learned a painful lesson about high-round risks. Subsequently, I now know the only thing worse than taking one dud is taking a few of them.
Yet we should be able to identify such risks. Maybe they will work out, maybe Moore could have gone on to another huge season. But I'll take the safer guy and let somebody else deal with the risk — both up and down.
Here are several players that I'd put in that early-round, high-risk category.
•Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis. I might need a separate list for Jackson. I can't fathom spending a first-round pick on him, not after he has spent much of his five seasons battling injuries. Remember, one of the reasons he fell to the 24th pick way back in the 2004 NFL Draft was because of concerns about his knees. He is an enormous risk to get hurt again and drag your team down with him.
The argument for taking him is the Rams do not have much of a passing game and new coach Steve Spagnuolo wants to feature a heavy dose of Jackson in a physical run game. Fine, he will get 30 carries in the first four weeks before all that work wears him down.
Realistically, the Rams have no reasonable offensive alternatives to Jackson. Which would be great if Jackson has proven he could withstand such a workload and not so great for a guy who has broken down under the strain.
•Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago. Cutler seems destined to disappoint. He would have to put up numbers similar to Tom Brady's record-breaking 2007 season to live up to the hype. Somebody in your league almost certainly will draft him too early — don't let it be you.
That doesn't mean Cutler won't have a solid season. But when you drop a brash, young quarterback onto a team with a conservative hierarchy, a team that likes to run and a team without one established wide receiver, you're asking for a few growing pains.
Winning a few extra games for the Bears doesn't matter. Any notion he could wind up as a top-five fantasy quarterback is based on nothing more than wishful thinking.
•Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland. Finding reasons to be excited about Edwards bouncing back are increasingly difficult.
He had his little training camp holdout/injury that did not win any favors with a new coach. Edwards still needs to prove he is a good receiver; even during his strong 2007 season, he was dropping too many passes.
And in case you haven't heard, the Browns aren't scaring anybody at quarterback between Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn.
Ideally, Edwards would be about a third-round value. But far too many things need to go right to justify that type of selection.
•Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver. Nor are things going well for Marshall under new coach Josh McDaniels, and you should be moving him down in your draft board accordingly. First, the Broncos shipped out Cutler, then Marshall made a stink about whether he really wanted to be in Denver, then he missed time in camp because of a hamstring injury.
That's bad enough before you consider Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley are tearing it up in the new offense. The Broncos are debunking the notion they must have a big presence from Marshall to have a powerful offense .
•Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans. I'll have sympathy for you only if you draft Bush in a point-per-reception league. He easily could match the 71 catches he's averaged in his three seasons, a major bonus in those leagues. But as a runner? Not so much. His rushing touchdowns have gone from six as a rookie to two last year and his time missed due to injuries has increased each year. After offseason knee surgery and the presence of Pierre Thomas, Bush won't be the Saints' best running back.
•Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami. My lack of understanding for Brown as a high pick is well-documented. In case you missed it: The Dolphins are not a team with consistent playmakers, and Brown is far from worthy as a No. 1 back. He gives up too much playing time to Ricky Williams. And while you might think Brown's passing TD and his Wildcat plays last season were cute, when his name comes up in the third round, remember that four of his 10 rushing TDs last year came in one game.
•Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City. If the new regime has made one thing clear, it is they will not stand for mistakes of the past. So when important passes start clanging off Bowe's hands, head coach Todd Haley won't hesitate to look for other options. One thing in Bowe's favor is the pickings are slim in Kansas City.
But this marriage doesn't look like a long-term fit unless Bowe makes some big changes.
•Antonio Bryant, WR, Buccaneers. Bryant looks like 2009's Moore in almost every way. Bryant has Moore beat in off-field problems but, like Moore, he unexpectedly burst out late in his career. Anybody who drafts Bryant expecting a repeat of last season's 83 receptions, 1,248 yards and seven touchdowns deserves to be disappointed.
Bryant will have almost nobody helping him at receiver and he'll have some sketchy quarterback play, from either Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown or raw rookie Josh Freeman.
The Bucs also will be a more conservative team under new coach Raheem Morris. You're asking for trouble if you expect him to be anything more than a third receiver.
By Matt Pitzer, USA TODAY
Ever had one of those early-round draft picks you would like to have back after the first few weeks? You know, the expected star who immediately turns into a painfully obvious dud?
He sits there sucking up space on your roster. You can't get anything worthwhile in a trade, and you can't bear to bench him — yet he does nothing to help you. Ever.
They are fantasy killers: Guys who deserve to be drafted early but implode and take your team down with them.
I remember one of my early blowups when I took then-Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Rob Moore early in 1998 after he led the league the prior season with 1,584 yards — stats that blew away anything he did in his first seven seasons.
Sure enough, he was a giant weight around my team all season. That operation went nowhere, but I learned a painful lesson about high-round risks. Subsequently, I now know the only thing worse than taking one dud is taking a few of them.
Yet we should be able to identify such risks. Maybe they will work out, maybe Moore could have gone on to another huge season. But I'll take the safer guy and let somebody else deal with the risk — both up and down.
Here are several players that I'd put in that early-round, high-risk category.
•Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis. I might need a separate list for Jackson. I can't fathom spending a first-round pick on him, not after he has spent much of his five seasons battling injuries. Remember, one of the reasons he fell to the 24th pick way back in the 2004 NFL Draft was because of concerns about his knees. He is an enormous risk to get hurt again and drag your team down with him.
The argument for taking him is the Rams do not have much of a passing game and new coach Steve Spagnuolo wants to feature a heavy dose of Jackson in a physical run game. Fine, he will get 30 carries in the first four weeks before all that work wears him down.
Realistically, the Rams have no reasonable offensive alternatives to Jackson. Which would be great if Jackson has proven he could withstand such a workload and not so great for a guy who has broken down under the strain.
•Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago. Cutler seems destined to disappoint. He would have to put up numbers similar to Tom Brady's record-breaking 2007 season to live up to the hype. Somebody in your league almost certainly will draft him too early — don't let it be you.
That doesn't mean Cutler won't have a solid season. But when you drop a brash, young quarterback onto a team with a conservative hierarchy, a team that likes to run and a team without one established wide receiver, you're asking for a few growing pains.
Winning a few extra games for the Bears doesn't matter. Any notion he could wind up as a top-five fantasy quarterback is based on nothing more than wishful thinking.
•Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland. Finding reasons to be excited about Edwards bouncing back are increasingly difficult.
He had his little training camp holdout/injury that did not win any favors with a new coach. Edwards still needs to prove he is a good receiver; even during his strong 2007 season, he was dropping too many passes.
And in case you haven't heard, the Browns aren't scaring anybody at quarterback between Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn.
Ideally, Edwards would be about a third-round value. But far too many things need to go right to justify that type of selection.
•Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver. Nor are things going well for Marshall under new coach Josh McDaniels, and you should be moving him down in your draft board accordingly. First, the Broncos shipped out Cutler, then Marshall made a stink about whether he really wanted to be in Denver, then he missed time in camp because of a hamstring injury.
That's bad enough before you consider Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley are tearing it up in the new offense. The Broncos are debunking the notion they must have a big presence from Marshall to have a powerful offense .
•Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans. I'll have sympathy for you only if you draft Bush in a point-per-reception league. He easily could match the 71 catches he's averaged in his three seasons, a major bonus in those leagues. But as a runner? Not so much. His rushing touchdowns have gone from six as a rookie to two last year and his time missed due to injuries has increased each year. After offseason knee surgery and the presence of Pierre Thomas, Bush won't be the Saints' best running back.
•Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami. My lack of understanding for Brown as a high pick is well-documented. In case you missed it: The Dolphins are not a team with consistent playmakers, and Brown is far from worthy as a No. 1 back. He gives up too much playing time to Ricky Williams. And while you might think Brown's passing TD and his Wildcat plays last season were cute, when his name comes up in the third round, remember that four of his 10 rushing TDs last year came in one game.
•Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City. If the new regime has made one thing clear, it is they will not stand for mistakes of the past. So when important passes start clanging off Bowe's hands, head coach Todd Haley won't hesitate to look for other options. One thing in Bowe's favor is the pickings are slim in Kansas City.
But this marriage doesn't look like a long-term fit unless Bowe makes some big changes.
•Antonio Bryant, WR, Buccaneers. Bryant looks like 2009's Moore in almost every way. Bryant has Moore beat in off-field problems but, like Moore, he unexpectedly burst out late in his career. Anybody who drafts Bryant expecting a repeat of last season's 83 receptions, 1,248 yards and seven touchdowns deserves to be disappointed.
Bryant will have almost nobody helping him at receiver and he'll have some sketchy quarterback play, from either Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown or raw rookie Josh Freeman.
The Bucs also will be a more conservative team under new coach Raheem Morris. You're asking for trouble if you expect him to be anything more than a third receiver.
